We actually saw a small uptick in terms of values for the month of September. A 2.27% on average increase MLS-wide, a little bit higher in Prescott - 2.98% and 2.45% in Prescott Valley.

What fueled that? More than likely it was the fact that interest rates started to come down, in anticipation of the Federal Reserve announcement that took place last month. And, we saw interest rates as low as about 6.1/6.2%.

As a result of that, I think we saw a little bit of an increase in demand and subsequently a little bit of an increase in terms of valuation, average price per square foot, as well.

Some things have happened since then. As you may have noticed, the interest rates have not gone down since the Fed announcement. So many people thought that soon as the Fed made this announcement, we were going to see rates go down.

People were even saying we were going to see less than 6% interest and the floodgates were going to open and everything else. Unfortunately, since the Fed made their announcement, we've seen nothing but rates start creeping back up. So as of the 1st of October, we saw rates at about 6.3%.

We just got the jobs report and the good news for the economy as a whole is that 254,000 jobs were added in September, which is great. Unemployment fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. Another positive sign. Now, unfortunately for home buyers out there, positive signs like that don't necessarily correlate to positive impacts in terms of your mortgage rate. So, as we sit here today, the rates now are closer to 6.6%.

When the jobs report was announced, we saw in a single day the average mortgage rate go up by over a quarter percent. And that is not necessarily unheard of, but it is very uncommon for that to happen in a single day.

So what's in store for us as we move forward? Unfortunately, I don't know the answer to that question. We have to see more economic data before those rates will continue to adjust and fluctuate.

What does all this mean? Well right now is we are seeing inventory levels locally continue to go up. So on October 1st we saw 1016 homes for sale. Now I want to be I want to be clear, these are site-built single family homes so, if you're looking at other websites, you might see higher numbers than that. I focus primarily on site-built, single family detached.

If you have questions about other properties, condos or townhomes, anything like that, manufactured etc, please feel free to reach out and we'll give you the data for that as well.

But as of October 1st there were 1016 homes on the market and as of now there's 1040 site-built single family homes on our market and our entire MLS. About 530 of those are in Prescott, 220 in Prescott Valley and a little bit less than 90 in Chino Valley. The rest are kind of in the surrounding areas.

What does that mean? Well, we haven't seen inventory levels that high since 2016!

If you follow us here, we've talked for the last several months that, on the current trajectory, usually the inventory peaks by August or September.

I don't think that I can remember in my career, which is coming up on 19 years, that I've seen the inventory continuing to climb in the month of October. Usually it's on the decline by this time of the year. Now, as of today, there are 1040 homes on the market. That is the largest inventory level that we've seen since 2016.

Now, when you look at our demand and you divide that into our supply, we're right at a five month supply. A balanced market is considered to be somewhere between 4 and 6 months.

We're right there. We're at a five month supply, so it wouldn't be accurate to say that we're in a buyer's market, and it wouldn't be accurate to say that we're in a seller's market. Average days on market are fairly stable - 65 days MLS-wide, Prescott running at 61 and 54 in Prescott Valley.

So, we'll continue to keep you posted as to what we see here in the market. Obviously, we've got some things going on, both here at home as well as abroad. And we've got some uncertainty in the economy. And so it's going to be a while, in my opinion, before these rates really figure out which direction they're going to stabilize.

Now, if you look at it as a 40 or 50 year average, the mortgage rates right now are not bad. We of course saw rates over seven and a half and approaching 8%, in recent times. So a rate of 6.5% is still very reasonable.

If you're a buyer and you've been waiting on the sidelines waiting for those rates to come below 6%, you might want to think long and hard about whether or not it's really worth waiting or finding the right house right now.

And of course we get asked all the time: "Hey, what should I do?" Keep in mind there are amazing opportunities for you in the market right now because, I'll say it one more time, there's more homes for sale right now in our MLS than we have seen since 2016. That's a lot of options for you.

If there are sellers that have their home on the market right now, as we approach the holidays and at some point maybe the weather will start to feel more like fall, those sellers want to sell their home. They're serious about it.

Now, the active inventory that's out there has been on the market 118 days. So remember, 60 days to sell the average home that's on the market right now. And here's the key - those homes at 118 days are priced roughly 10% above the average selling price of the homes that are moving. That's an average in the MLS.

So if you're a seller I'll turn it around. We need to take a really good look at what inventory you're competing against. What is out there right now that's similar to your home that's on the market? And it's really important for your agent to have a very knowledgeable approach and expectation for you so that they know these are the homes that you're competing against and if we want to establish that value and get those buyers in the market to choose your home versus the competition, they have to know what's out there that you're competing against.

If you have specific questions or scenarios that you want to run by us, please feel free to reach out.

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